BC Home Sales Decline 25% in 2018


Vancouver, BC – January 15, 2019.  The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 78,345 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2018, a decline of 24.5 per cent from the 103,758 units sold in 2017. The annual average MLS® residential price in BC was $712,508, an increase of 0.4 per cent from $709,601 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $55.8 billion, a 24.2 per cent decline from 2017.“BC home sales fell below the 10-year average of 84,800 units in 2018,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The sharp decline in affordability caused by the B20 mortgage stress test is largely to blame for decline in consumer demand last year.”A total of 3,497 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded across the province in December, down 39.1 per cent from December 2017. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $695,647, a decline of 5.2 per cent from December 2017. Total sales dollar volume was $2.4 billion, a 42.3 per cent decline during the same period.Total active residential listings were up 33.3 per cent to 27,615 units in December, the highest December inventory since 2014 when 33,995 active residential listings were recorded.
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for about 23,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients. To demonstrate the profession’s commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities, BCREA supports policies that help ensure economic vitality, provide housing opportunities, preserve the environment, protect property owners and build better communities with good schools and safe neighbourhoods. For detailed statistical information, contact your local real estate board. MLS® is a cooperative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

BC Home Sales Continue at Slower Pace


BC Home Sales Continue at Slower Pace

Vancouver, BC – December 14, 2018. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,179 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) across the province in November, down 33.1 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $718,903, a decline of 1.9 per cent from November 2017. Total sales dollar volume was $3.7 billion, a 34.3 per cent decline from November 2017.

“BC households continue to struggle with the sharp decline in purchasing power caused by the B20 mortgage stress test,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Most BC regions are now exhibiting relative balance between supply and demand.”

Total active residential listings were up nearly 31 per cent to 33,500 units in November, compared to the same month last year. However, it should be noted that this compares to 2017, when active listings for the month of November were at their lowest level in more than 15 years.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 23.1 per cent to $53.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales declined 23.6 per cent to 74,847 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 0.7 per cent to $713,302.

Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast


BC Home Sales to Rise in 2019 
BCREA 2018 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – November 8, 2018. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2018 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 23 per cent to 80,000 units this year, after recording 103,768 residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 12 per cent to 89,500 units in 2019. The 10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,800 units.

“The marked erosion of affordability and purchasing power caused by the mortgage stress test and rising interest rates continue to be a drag on the housing demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, continuing strong performance in the economy combined with favourable demographics is expected to push home sales above their 10-year average in 2019.”

Despite the mortgage policy drag on the sector, strong performance of the BC economy continues to be highly supportive of housing demand. Five consecutive years of above trend growth in the province has led to a high level of employment and an unemployment rate that appears to be at a cyclical low.

The combination of fewer home sales and a larger inventory of homes for sale has helped trend most markets to balanced conditions. As a result, home price growth has slowed considerably, and is expected to more closely reflect overall consumer price inflation through 2019. In addition, a record number of homes are under construction in BC, which will provide for much needed expansion of the housing stock and greater price stability.

Summer Home Sales Slow to a Simmer


 August 13, 2018. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,055 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) across the province in July, a 23.9 per cent decrease from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $695,990, down 0.4 per cent from July 2017. Total sales dollar volume was $4.9 billion, a 24.2 per cent decline from July 2017.

The BC housing market continues to grapple with the sharp decline in affordability caused by tough new mortgage qualification rules, said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. However, less frenetic housing demand has created more balanced market conditions in many regions, leading to fewer multiple offers and more choice for consumers.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 18.9 per cent to $37 billion, compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales decreased 20.6 per cent to 50,926 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 2.1 per cent to $725,639.

CREA modifies forecasted home sales


The Canadian Real Estate Association is lowering its national home sales forecast for this year due to weaker sales in B.C. and Ontario.

The industry association says it now expects home sales this year to fall 11 per cent compared with a year ago to 459,900 units this year.

The prediction compared with a forecast for a 7.1 per cent decline the association released in March.

The updated forecast came as CREA reported actual home sales in May hit a seven-year low as they fell 16.2 per cent compared with a year ago.

The national average price for homes sold in May was just over $496,000, down 6.4 per cent from a year ago.

Excluding the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver areas, the average price was just over $391,100, down two per cent.

Canadian home sales post third consecutive decline in July


Ottawa, ON, August 15, 2016 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales declined for a third consecutive month in July 2016.

Highlights:

  • National home sales fell 1.3% from June to July.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 2.9% below July 2015.
  • The number of newly listed homes rose 1.2% from June to July.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 14.3% year-over-year in July.
  • The national average sale price climbed 9.9% in July from one year ago; net of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Vancouver, it advanced 7% year-over-year.

The number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 1.3 percent month-over-month in July 2016. With similar monthly declines having been posted in May and June, national sales activity in July came in 3.9 percent below the record set in April 2016.

Sales activity was down from the previous month in slightly more than half of all markets in July, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Transactions in these two markets peaked in February of this year, and have since then dropped by 21.5 and 28.8 percent respectively. Accordingly, much of the national sales decline in recent months reflects slowing activity in B.C.’s Lower Mainland.

“National sales and price trends continue to be heavily influenced by a handful of places in Ontario and British Columbia and mask significant variations in local housing market trends and conditions across Canada,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales, listing and price trends where you live or might like to in the future.”

“Home sales continued to trend lower while price gains further accelerated in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “This suggests that sales are being reined in by a lack of inventory and a further deterioration in affordability. The new 15 per cent property transfer tax on Metro Vancouver home purchases by foreign buyers took effect on August 2nd, so it will take some time before the effect of the new tax on sales and prices can be observed. That said, the new tax will do little in the short term to increase the supply of homes.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was down 2.9 percent year-over-year (y-o-y) in July 2016, marking the first y-o-y decline since January 2015 and the largest since April 2013. In line with softening activity in the Lower Mainland, y-o-y increases have been losing momentum since February 2016. Sales were down from levels one year earlier in about 60 percent of all Canadian markets, led by Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary and Edmonton.

The number of newly listed homes rose by 1.2 percent in July 2016 compared to June. While new supply climbed in fewer than half of all local markets, increases in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Greater Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton outweighed declines in smaller markets.

With sales down and new listings up, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 61.6 percent in July 2016 – its second monthly decline following its peak of 65.3 percent in May. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60 percent in about half of all local housing markets in July, virtually all of which continue to be located in British Columbia, in and around the Greater Toronto Area and across Southwestern Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of July 2016. This is unchanged from readings in each of the previous two months and continues to indicate a tight balance between supply and demand for homes.

The number of months of inventory has trended lower since early 2015, reflecting increasingly tighter housing markets in B.C. and Ontario. It currently sits near or below two months in a number of local markets in British Columbia and in and around the GTA. Indeed, some regions in the GTA are down to just a couple of weeks of inventory.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 14.3 percent y-o-y in July 2016, the biggest gain since November 2006.

For the sixth consecutive month, y-o-y price growth accelerated for all Benchmark property types tracked by the index.

Two-storey single family home prices continued to post the biggest y-o-y gain (+15.9 percent), followed by townhouse/row units (+15.3 percent), one-storey single family homes (+14.3 percent), and apartment units (+11.1 percent).

While prices in 9 of the 11 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI posted y-o-y gains in July, increases continue to vary widely among housing markets.

Greater Vancouver (+32.6 percent) and the Fraser Valley (+37.6 percent) posted the largest y-o-y gains by a wide margin, followed by Greater Toronto (+16.7 percent), Victoria (+17.5 percent) and Vancouver Island (+11.6 percent). By contrast, prices were down -4.2 percent and -1.5 percent y-o-y in Calgary and Saskatoon respectively.

Home prices rose modestly in Regina (+2.7 percent y-o-y), Greater Montreal (+1.8 percent y-o-y) and Ottawa (+1.1 percent y-o-y). Greater Moncton recorded its largest y-o-y home price increase (+8.4 percent) among an unbroken string of gains posted every month over the past year.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in July 2016 was $480,743, up 9.9 percent y-o-y.

If these two housing markets are excluded from calculations, the average price is a more modest $365,033 and the gain is trimmed to 7.0 percent y-o-y.

Even then, this reflects a tug of war between strong average price gains in housing markets around the GTA and in British Columbia versus flat or declining average prices elsewhere in Canada. The average price for Canada net of sales in British Columbia and Ontario in July 2016 edged down 0.2 percent y-o-y to $310,905. The year-over-year percentage change in the national average price excluding B.C. and Ontario sales has now been in negative territory for 20 consecutive months.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

Canadian home sales decline further in June


Ottawa, ON, July 15, 2016 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales declined further in June 2016.

Highlights:

  • National home sales fell 0.9% from May to June.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 5.2% above June 2015.
  • The number of newly listed homes rose 2.2% from May to June.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 13.6% year-over-year in June.
  • The national average sale price climbed 11.2% in June from one year ago; net of Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver, it advanced 8.4% year-over-year.

The number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 0.9 percent month-over-month in June 2016. Monthly declines in each of the past two months have left sales activity 2.6 percent below the record set in April 2016.

Sales activity was down from the previous month in about half of all markets in June, with declines in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and Greater Toronto having eclipsed gains in comparatively less active housing markets.

“While national sales activity remains strong, there are still significant differences in housing market trends across Canada,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “While home sales activity and price growth are running strong in B.C. and Ontario, they remain subdued in other markets where homebuyers are cautious and uncertain about the outlook for their local economy,” he added. “All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“June sales extended trends observed the previous month,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “As was the case in May, the monthly decline in national sales activity was led by the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and markets in or around the GTA. In keeping with the law of supply and demand, exceptionally low inventory combined with high demand continues to translate into strong price growth in these housing markets, where year-over-year price gains have been running in double-digit territory since late last year.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was up 5.2 percent year-over-year (y-o-y) in June 2016. Year-over-year increases have been steadily losing momentum since February 2016.

The number of newly listed homes rose by 2.2 percent in June 2016 compared to May. New supply climbed among a broad majority of all local markets, led by Greater Toronto, Oakville-Milton, Montreal, Quebec City, and B.C.’s Fraser Valley. The return of activity in Fort McMurray following its evacuation in May also contributed to the national increase in new listings.

With sales down and new listings up, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 63.3 percent in June 2016, compared to 65.3 percent in May. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60 percent in about half of all local housing markets in June, virtually all of which are located in British Columbia, in and around Toronto and across Southwestern Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of June 2016, which is unchanged from May’s reading and the lowest level in more than six years. The number of months of inventory has been trending lower since early 2015, reflecting increasingly tighter housing markets in B.C. and Ontario. It currently sits near or below two months in a number of local markets in British Columbia, the GTA and environs and Southwestern Ontario.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Benchmark price rose by 13.6 percent y-o-y to $564,700 in June 2016, the biggest gain since December 2006.

For the fifth consecutive month, y-o-y price growth accelerated for all Benchmark property types tracked by the index.

Two-storey single family home prices continued to post the biggest y-o-y gain (+15.5 percent), followed by one-storey single family homes (+14.0 percent), townhouse/row units (+13.6 percent), and apartment units (+9.8 percent).

While prices in 9 of the 11 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI posted y-o-y gains in June, price growth continues to vary widely among housing markets.

Greater Vancouver (+32.1 percent) and the Fraser Valley (+35.5 percent) posted the largest y-o-y gains, followed by Greater Toronto (+16.0 percent), Victoria (+15.7 percent), and Vancouver Island (+10.6 percent). By contrast, prices were down -4.1 percent and -1.4 percent y-o-y in Calgary and Saskatoon, respectively.

Home prices gained further traction in Regina (+3.6 percent y-o-y), Greater Montreal (+1.9 percent y-o-y), and Ottawa (+1.0 percent y-o-y). Home prices in Greater Moncton recorded their eleventh consecutive year-over-year gain, rising 7.9 percent.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in June 2016 was $503,301, up 11.2 percent y-o-y.

If these two housing markets are excluded from calculations, the average price is a more modest $374,760 and the gain is trimmed to 8.4 percent y-o-y.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

Bank of Canada again keeps interest rates on hold


The Bank of Canada announced on July 13th, 2016 that it was keeping its trend-setting target overnight lending rate at 0.5 per cent.

The announcement repeated many of the themes from its announcements and Monetary Policy Reports (MPRs) published in late 2015 and early 2016. Chief among these themes is how the Bank is still counting on the continuation of low interest rates and stronger U.S. economic growth to buoy Canadian exporters amid ongoing weakness in Canadian business investment.

However, the Bank again reduced its annual forecast for Canadian economic growth in light “a weaker outlook for business investment and a lower profile for exports reflecting a downward adjustment to US investment spending”. It also recognized how recent economic growth was reduced by the Alberta wildfires; however, it expects Canadian economic growth will pick up in the third quarter as oil production resumes.

The Bank also recognized that inflation has recently been running slightly higher than it previously expected but noted that inflation “is still in the lower half of the Bank’s inflation-control range”. It expects that the increase in inflation due to past weakness in the Canadian dollar will be temporary and will “dissipate in late 2016”.

While the Bank judges that “the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced”, it expressed concerns about “the implications of the Brexit vote”, which it described as being “highly uncertain and difficult to forecast.” Its implications may ultimately result in the need to lower interest rates. However, lower interest rates would also likely further raise concerns the Bank has about Canadians’ “financial vulnerabilities [which] are elevated and rising, particularly in the greater Vancouver and Toronto areas.”

With all of these factors in mind, there is nothing in the Bank’s latest policy interest rate announcement to suggest that it will begin to raise interest rates until well into 2017 at the earliest.

As of July 13th, 2016, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 4.74 per cent, up 0.1 from both the previous Bank rate announcement on May 25th and from one year ago.

The next interest rate announcement will be on September 7th, 2016, with the next update to the Monetary Policy Report to be released on October 19th, 2016.

Canadian home sales drop in May following April’s record


Ottawa, ON, June 15, 2016 According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales dropped in May 2016 after having set an all-time monthly record in April.

Highlights:

  • National home sales dropped 2.8% from April to May.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 9.6% compared to May 2015.
  • The number of newly listed homes fell 3.2% from April to May.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 12.5% year-over-year in May.
  • The national average sale price climbed 13.2% in May from one year ago; net of Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver, it advanced 9.1% year-over-year.

The number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 2.8 percent month-over-month in May 2016 after having broken all previous monthly sales records in April.

Sales activity dropped in May from the previous month in about 70 percent of all markets, led by those in British Columbia and Ontario where the number of homes listed for sale has fallen to multi-year or all-time lows.

“National sales activity is still strong, even after coming off the record levels of the past couple of months,” said CREA President Cliff Iverson. “But, there are housing markets where sales continue to reflect a cautious mood among homebuyers and uncertainty about the local economy,” he added. “All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to in the future.”

“Many of the housing markets in BC and Ontario that led the monthly decline in national sales are also places where months of inventory have fallen to all-time lows,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “This suggests a lack of supply may be starting to rein in sales amid a continuation of strong housing demand.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was up 9.6 percent year-over-year in May 2016 and stood 15.1 percent above the 10-year average for the month of May.

The number of newly listed homes fell by 3.2 percent in May 2016 compared to April. New supply was down in about two-thirds of all local markets, led by the Fraser Valley, Victoria, Edmonton, Montreal and Quebec City.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio edged up to 64.8 percent in May 2016 – the ratio’s tightest reading since October 2009. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 percent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60 percent in about half of all local housing markets in May, virtually all of which are located in British Columbia, in addition to housing markets in and around Toronto and across Southwestern Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of May 2016, which is unchanged from April’s reading and the lowest level in more than six years. Months of inventory have been trending lower since early 2015, reflecting increasingly tighter housing markets in B.C. and Ontario. It currently sits at or below two months in a growing number of local markets in British Columbia, the GTA and environs and in Southwestern Ontario.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 12.5 percent on a year-over-year basis in May 2016, the biggest gain since February 2007.

For the fourth consecutive month, year-over-year price growth accelerated for all Benchmark property types tracked by the index.

Two-storey single family home prices continued to post the biggest year-over-year gain (+14.7 percent), followed by one storey single family homes (+12.7 percent), townhouse/row units (+11.6 percent), and apartment units (+8.6 percent).

While 9 of the 11 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI posted year-over-year price gains in May, price growth among housing markets continues to vary widely.

Greater Vancouver (+29.7 percent) and the Fraser Valley (+31.7 percent) posted the largest gains, followed by Greater Toronto (+15.0 percent), Victoria (+13.9 percent), and Vancouver Island (+9.5 percent). By contrast, prices fell by -3.9 percent and -2.3 percent in Calgary and Saskatoon respectively.

Year-over-year price growth advanced further into positive territory in Regina (+3.4 percent) and strengthened further in Ottawa (+1.3 percent) and Greater Montreal (+1.9 percent). Home prices in Greater Moncton recorded their tenth consecutive year-over-year gain, rising 8.2 percent from where they stood one year earlier.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because average price is prone to being distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in May 2016 was $509,460, up 13.2 percent on a year-over-year basis.

If these two housing markets are excluded from calculations, the average price is a more modest $375,532 and the year-over-year gain is trimmed to 9.1 percent.

Even then, this reflects a tug of war between strong average price gains in housing markets around the GTA and in British Columbia versus flat or declining average prices elsewhere in Canada. The average price for Canada net of sales in British Columbia and Ontario in May 2016 was down 0.7 percent year-over-year to $310,007.

All figures in this release except price measures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Removing normal seasonal variations enables meaningful analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends.

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

 

CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast


Ottawa, ON, June 15, 2016 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations in 2016 and 2017.

Canadian resale housing market trends that defined 2015 have intensified. National sales activity and average prices reached new heights in the first half of 2016 amid a growing supply shortage of single family homes in British Columbia and Ontario, particularly in B.C.’s Lower Mainland as well as in and around the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

Price gains in these regions stand in contrast to declines in provinces where economic and housing market prospects are closely tied to the outlook for the oil patch and other natural resource industries. Elsewhere, home prices are growing modestly, such as in Ottawa or Montreal.

Activity should begin to rebalance away from B.C. and Ontario, as supply shortages put upward pressure on home prices and constrain transactions even as housing demand remains strong in these provinces and interest rates remain low. Accordingly, sales activity over the second half of the year is expected to ease in B.C., Ontario and on a national basis.

Sales in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador are expected to struggle to regain traction this year, resulting in continuing softness for home prices. In most other provinces, home sales activity and average prices should improve as their economies strengthen and interest rates remain low.

Nationally, sales activity is forecast to rise by 6.1 per cent to 536,400 units in 2016. This would represent a new annual record, but remain below the peak reached in the 2007 after adjusting for population growth. (Figure A)

British Columbia is forecast to post the largest annual increase in activity (+20.0 per cent) this year, while Alberta is expected the record the largest annual decline in activity (-11.5 per cent). Although housing demand remains strong among many housing markets in Ontario, a lack of supply is projected to constrain the increase in sales activity (+5.2 per cent) this year.

Elsewhere, sales are forecast to rise in Manitoba (+7.1 per cent), Quebec (+5.1 per cent) and Nova Scotia (+5.8 per cent), reflecting anticipated economic improvements in these provinces. In New Brunswick, strong home sales toward the end of last year and a weak start to 2016 is projected to result in a small annual decline in activity this year despite an anticipated improvement in its economic prospects.

In Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador, where housing market prospects are tied to the outlook for natural resource prices, annual sales activity is forecast to ease by four per cent and one per cent respectively this year.

Prices have continued to push higher in British Columbia and Ontario and sales in these expensive real estate markets have recently hit record highs. Accordingly, CREA’s forecast for the national average price has been revised upward to $490,700 in 2016, representing an annual increase of 10.8 per cent.

Highlighting how provincial sales activity affects the national average price, British Columbia is the only province where the average home price is forecast to climb faster (+13.5 per cent) than the national average in 2016. Ontario’s average price is forecast to rise roughly in line with the national increase.

Elsewhere, average prices in 2016 are forecast to rise by 1.4 per cent in Manitoba, 1.1 per cent in Quebec, 1.4 per cent in New Brunswick, and 0.2 per cent in Nova Scotia. Reflecting recent housing market strength in Prince Edward Island, its average price is forecast to advance by 4.5 per cent in 2016.

The forecast for Alberta’s average price has been revised upward and is now projected to eke out a small gain (+0.6 per cent) this year as the province’s supply of listings continues to be drawn down by sales activity. By contrast, average price is expected to ease in Saskatchewan (-1.4 per cent) and record a marked decline in Newfoundland & Labrador (-8.0 per cent).

In 2017, national sales are forecast to number 537,500 units, which is virtually unchanged (+0.2 per cent) from the forecast for sales this year. Activity in B.C. and Ontario is anticipated to remain strong but unable to match records set this year due to a combination of deteriorating affordability and a lack of supply.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence should begin to strengthen and begin drawing homebuyers off the sidelines in Alberta and Saskatchewan as oil prices improve and their economic prospects strengthen. This should contribute to a modest rebound in sales activity for these provinces in 2017.

British Columbia is projected to post an annual decline of 2.3 per cent in home sales in 2017, while annual sales in Ontario are forecast to edge back by 0.6 per cent in 2017.

By contrast, sales activity is forecast to continue rising in Manitoba, Quebec and Nova Scotia next year, reflecting further anticipated economic improvement in these provinces. Meanwhile, sales in Prince Edward Island are expected to remain near on par with record levels forecast for 2016, as the province’s economy continues to benefit from a lower Canadian dollar.

The national average price is forecast to remain stable (+0.1 per cent or +$400) to $491,100 next year, with modest price gains near or below inflation in most provinces.

Slower national average price growth in 2017 primarily reflects the effect of a projected slowdown in sales activity in British Columbia and Ontario. In these two provinces, luxury sales activity is anticipated to recede from current record levels, resulting in a decline in their share of total sales activity. An ample supply of listings relative to demand will continue to keep price gains in check in other provinces, although inventories have begun to shrink in provinces where supply had been elevated in recent years.

All figures in this release except price measures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Removing normal seasonal variations enables meaningful analysis of monthly changes and fundamental trends.

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About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 115,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca

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